2025 quarter 1 real estate market update

In 2022, when we left our previous firm to join Christies-Sereno and form the Pulpan Brothers Group, I began writing these newsletters to maintain consistent communication with our growing network and provide thoughtful insights into the local marketplace. Each newsletter starts with supply levels for Santa Clara County and interest rates, followed by any noteworthy topics. My goal is to help you frame the current market and inform any upcoming real estate decisions.

However, I understand not everyone has the time to read the whole newsletter so moving forward we are going to include an AI summary that can be accessed HERE.

• Supply Levels

• Mortgage Rates

• NAR is rewriting the Clear Cooperation Policy

Supply Levels

During our 2024 Year End Newsletter we discussed how rising prices post election were largely due to motivated buyers and the extremely low inventory environment. This was somewhat uncharacteristic of Q4 and the traditionally slower holiday season. However, what we’ve seen since the beginning of the year is a dramatic increase in new listings. With a nearly 30% year over year increase in the number of new listings hitting the market during the first quarter of the year. As a result buyers are seeing far more options across nearly all local marketplaces. 

*MLS data provided | Single Family Homes | Santa Clara County

This is the strongest Q1 since 2021, the height of the covid market. However, as mentioned before it will likely take some time before we return to prepandemic inventory levels, if ever. We often talk about supply as one of the most obvious and significant hurdles in improving homeownership rates. In order to conceptualize the tightening of supply across the last two and half decades, take a look at the chart below. 

This data is pulled from the MLS for single family homes in Santa Clara County since 2001. To be clear, this data primarily pulls resales, not new construction. However it is important to note that as this resale trend line goes down, housing supply has increased. Meaning that despite construction efforts and an increase in the total number of single family homes built in Santa Clara county over this period, the number of available single family homes in the marketplace has decreased year after year. This can be attributed to a number of factors, many of which we described in our earlier blog, “The Lock-In Effect and What May Lie Ahead in 2025.”

Despite the recent increase in supply, demand has remained resilient for the time being. However, keep in mind that sale data is typically 30-45 days behind. March of this year produced a new record for median sales price in Santa Clara County. At $2,100,000 sales exceeded the previous peak of $2,038,000 in May of 2024. This is only the second time that the median sales price has exceeded $2,000,000 in Santa Clara County. 

*MLS data provided | Single Family Homes | Santa Clara County

Lastly, I have included a chart below outlining the median value of single family homes in Santa Clara county since 2001. As you can see the tightening of supply has had a significant impact on home appreciation over the same period of time. I expect appreciation rates to compress in coming months due to a supply imbalance as there remains uncertainty around global markets and employment levels.

Interest Rates

I sat down to write this newsletter the first week of April but the bond market was in flux due to a combination of factors. I figured a little time for the dust to settle may provide some additional context for this portion of the newsletter. So far this year mortgage rates peaked during the first week of January, since then they’ve begun to trend downward. For context the 10-Year Treasury bill (T10), which we know closely mirrors mortgage rates, fell from 4.7% in January to 3.99% during the first week of April. However, nearly all of this improvement was reversed shortly after “Liberation Day.” As of Monday April 11th the T10 was at 4.5%. 

It isn’t often we see a 60 basis point adjustment in U.S. bonds in such a short period of time. In fact, global uncertainty typically brings US bond yields down. However, when the uncertainty is around the bond market, rates can move paradoxically higher. Many have expressed this movement to be a result of inflation or US deficit concerns, alluding that the rest of the world is reevaluating US debt and its perception as a “safe haven” asset. However, this opinion seems to be contradicted by the strongest foreign demand on record during last week's US Treasury Debt Auction. 

There is also conversation around whether the significant rise in yields could be attributed to Trump's tariff announcement and escalating trade war with China. China is the second largest foreign holder of US debt, behind Japan, at nearly $800 billion. This is largely due to its trade surplus, as China receives US dollars from its exports and uses it to purchase U.S. Treasuries. If China expects to export fewer goods to the US, it could lead to receiving fewer US dollars. This would naturally reduce China's exposure to the US dollar, including its holdings of Treasuries. This is much more difficult to track as China diversifies its holdings through custodian accounts in Europe. As a result, it is difficult to understand how much exposure China truly has to US debt and how much they are offloading at any given time. 

I closely follow JP Conklin of Pensford with respect to mortgage rates. I enjoy his takes on the mortgage market and I believe he has one of the best newsletters on the matter. Recently, he laid out a third possible cause for the recent swing, one that is far more nuanced and anomalous. In summary, JP believes that the rise in yields was likely due to a hedge fund(s) being forced to sell due to technical factors like margin calls and the unwinding of leveraged positions, rather than concerns about inflation or deficits. You can read the full newsletter HERE. 

As for now we can certainly expect volatility to remain in the mortgage market. As I am finishing this newsletter rates have trended back down in the last two weeks with the T10 sitting at 4.39%. If you are thinking about getting into the market, let us know as we’ll connect you with a lender who can help you navigate today’s environment and best position you for success. 

The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) is rewriting the Clear Cooperation Policy (CCP), what does it mean for you?

Since May 2020, NAR’s CCP requires REALTORS® to list properties on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) within one business day of public marketing (e.g., yard signs, social media). This is intended to ensure transparency, broad access, and fair housing by preventing “pocket listings” that limit buyer opportunities. 

The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) Clear Cooperation Policy (CCP), as retained and updated on March 25, 2025, still does not allow agents to publicly market properties off the MLS for more than one business day without submitting the listing to the MLS.

However, now the seller can explicitly opt for an "office exclusive" listing, which is marketed only within a brokerage and filed with the MLS but not publicly disseminated. The new policy introduced alongside the revised CCP, called "Multiple Listing Options for Sellers," does not permit agents to freely market properties publicly off the MLS. Instead, it provides a limited exemption for sellers who want to control the timing of broad online syndication (e.g., to public portals like Zillow or Realtor.com via Internet Data Exchange, or IDX). This has largely been used in our local marketplace for premarketing efforts, we refer to this as “MLS Coming Soon.”

The largest impact for our local market is that NAR clarified that one-to-one broker communications (e.g., direct emails between agents) doesn’t trigger the CCP’s one-day rule. Therefore, if a seller wants to market privately (e.g., within a brokerage or select network), they can use an office exclusive or the delayed marketing exemption. 

This change was intended to continue NAR and MLS’s commitment to transparency while addressing demands from brokerages like Compass for more seller choice. Compass, the largest U.S. brokerage, criticizes the CCP as being too restrictive, pushing for seller control via “Private Exclusive” and “Coming Soon” listings marketed internally first. With nearly 10,000 listings in pre-marketing, Compass’s strategy threatens Zillow by diverting listings to its own platform or rival portals like Homes.com.

As a result of this change, Zillow has decided to fire back. Zillow, the leading U.S. real estate portal, relies on advertising, lead generation, and mortgage services, driven by comprehensive listing inventory to attract users. Its business model depends on high traffic (64% of listing app share) to sell leads to agents and monetize services, requiring transparent access to MLS listings. On April 10, 2025, Zillow announced it would ban listings publicly marketed off the MLS before submission, effective May 2025, to protect its inventory and revenue. These “previously suppressed” listings, even if later MLS-listed, are excluded to deter private marketing, like Compass’s “Private Exclusives,” which diverts listings to rival platforms like Redfin, Homes.com.

Once banned, the property would need to be relisted with a different brokerage and different agent before it can be syndicated to ZIllow through the MLS.

As an independent brokerage favoring broad exposure, Zillow’s policy supports our strategy by incentivizing MLS compliance and syndication, ensuring listings reach the widest audience possible. Our market’s “Coming Soon” feature already facilitates pre-marketing within the MLS, which complies with CCP and avoids Zillow’s ban. However, for clients with tenant-occupied properties or high privacy needs, you can leverage office exclusives or delayed syndication, but please know that a change in strategy may have lasting visibility trade-offs. 

If you have specific scenarios or want guidance on client communications about these changes, let us know!