I hope you enjoyed celebrating America’s 250th birthday. Sometimes the meaning of July 4th can get lost among the hot dogs and fireworks. At its core, the day is rooted in the promise of the Declaration of Independence, which famously states, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”
That idea is what unites us as a country. We are a deeply diverse group of people, joined under a government of the people, by the people, and for the people. Popular sovereignty reminds us that the government holds no authority of its own. It exists to serve the public and protect the natural rights of its citizens. Under this social contract, political power comes from the consent of the governed, who ultimately retain the right to alter or replace a system that fails them. It is something worth keeping in mind throughout the year, and at the very least, something worth reflecting on each July.
This milestone also arrives in the same summer that North America hosts the World Cup, bringing visitors from around the world to witness the American experiment firsthand. Whether it is Japanese travelers enjoying Texas BBQ, the British learning about ranch dressing, or the Scottish drinking Boston dry, the event brings people together to celebrate the diversity, abundance, and energy that make America what it is.
What a time.
Market Update
The Bay Area housing market is rarely driven by one factor. Prices, inventory, mortgage rates, the Nasdaq, RSU’s, IPO activity, and buyer confidence all move together. Q2 2026 was a good reminder of that.
*MLS data provided | Single Family Homes | Santa Clara County
In Santa Clara County, the data shows a softer market on the surface. Median sales prices for single family homes were flat year over year in April, then declined 4.65% in May and 8.61% in June. At the same time, new listings rose earlier in the year before pulling back in late spring. New listings were up 4.84% in April, then down 4.69% in May and 2.48% in June.
*MLS data provided | Single Family Homes | Santa Clara County
That combination is important. If buyers had fully taken control, we would expect inventory to keep building. Instead, both sides seemed to hesitate. Buyers had more options early in the year, but many were also processing elevated mortgage rates, mixed economic signals, global uncertainty, and volatility in the public markets.
Mortgage rates remained a major constraint. The 30 year fixed rate improved to 6.01% in February, with many of our clients securing loans in the mid to low 5% range. However, rates moved back into the mid 6% range by June, including 6.52% on June 11 and 6.49% on June 25. That kept affordability tight and made buyers more cautious with pricing.
At the same time, the Bay Area has a unique driver in tech wealth. The Nasdaq had a very strong second quarter, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining 21.6% for the quarter, its largest quarterly gain since 2020. Nasdaq also reported a record first half for new listings, with $129.3 billion raised from new listings across its exchange.
That is why I would be careful about calling this a weak market. It looks more like a market waiting for confidence to convert into action.
One of the trends I am watching closely is the contrast of Santa Clara against San Mateo and San Francisco County. San Francisco County Single family home values are up 21.43% year over year while San Mateo County values are up nearly 10%. Santa Clara County is softer, and may suggest the AI wealth effect is showing up first closer to San Francisco and the northern Peninsula. Recent reporting has already tied renewed San Francisco housing demand to AI related wealth, anticipated IPOs, and buyers with access to liquidity through stock compensation or secondary share sales.
That does not mean the money automatically moves down the Peninsula overnight. It usually moves in waves. Demand often strengthens first near the companies, offices, and neighborhoods where buyers already live and work. Over time, as liquidity events become real and families look for more space, that demand can spread into Silicon Valley markets like Palo Alto, Mountain View, Los Altos, Cupertino, Saratoga, Los Gatos, and broader Santa Clara County.
For buyers, this may be one of the more interesting windows we have seen in years. There is more room to be thoughtful, especially on homes that need work or were priced too aggressively. But this is not a market where every seller is under pressure. High quality homes in strong locations are still attracting serious attention.
For sellers, the message is simple. The market is more selective, not broken. Pricing, preparation, and presentation matter more than they did during the peak frenzy. Buyers are still active, but they are less willing to stretch for homes that are not positioned correctly.
Looking ahead, the second half of the year will likely depend on three major forces: mortgage rates, Nasdaq performance, and whether AI related IPO activity creates more liquidity for Bay Area buyers. The Federal Reserve held its target rate at 3.50% to 3.75% in June, so buyers are still waiting for meaningful relief on borrowing costs.
The bigger story may be that Santa Clara County is not behind because demand disappeared. It may simply be lagging the first wave of renewed tech wealth showing up in San Francisco and San Mateo County.
Thanks for reading, let us know if you have questions or if we can help strategize your real estate goals. Always here to help.
