If you've seen the chart floating around lately — the one showing nearly half a million more home sellers than buyers nationwide — you're not alone. A recent piece from U.S. Global Investors dug into new Redfin data showing just over 966,000 active buyers nationally in July, the lowest count on record, against almost 1.5 million sellers. On paper, that's the strongest buyer's market in a generation.
We've had more than one client and friend send us that graph this month, usually with some version of the same question: "Does this mean prices are finally coming down?"
Nationally, the honest answer is: not really, and not for the reason you'd expect. Locally, in the South Bay, the picture is almost the opposite entirely and it's worth understanding why, whether you're buying or selling here in Los Gatos, Almaden, Willow Glen, or anywhere else in Santa Clara County.
Nationally: More Sellers, Same Prices
Here's the part that trips people up. Despite that huge gap between buyers and sellers, the national median home price still hit a record for July, and prices are still up year-over-year according to the FHFA House Price Index. Home sales fell, and new construction fell even further, yet prices didn't budge downward.
Why? Because supply is shrinking even faster than demand. Builders have effectively stopped building at scale — single-family housing starts hit their lowest level since 2022, and builder sentiment has been stuck in pessimistic territory for over two years — largely because construction input costs have spiked sharply over the past year, driven in large part by tariffs on steel, aluminum, and lumber. Builders aren't lowering prices because they can't afford to; instead, they're just building less. Add in 30-year mortgage rates hovering around 6.7%, a savings rate near record lows], and rising HELOC balances, and you get a national market where buyer demand has genuinely cratered, but so has supply — which is the only reason prices are holding rather than falling.
That's the nationwide story. It's a real trend, and it's worth watching. But it doesn't map cleanly onto what's happening here.
Locally: The South Bay Never Left Seller's Market Territory
The gap between "more sellers than buyers nationally" and "what's happening in the South Bay" comes down to one thing: inventory. A balanced market — one where buyers and sellers have roughly equal leverage — sits around three months of supply. Santa Clara County has been running at a fraction of that all year, generally in the 0.6 to 1.5 month range depending on the season and price tier. That's not a market correcting; that's still a structural shortage.
- Days on market across Santa Clara County have mostly held in the single digits to low 20s for well-priced single-family homes — a fraction of the 45+ days that would signal a balanced market.
- Sale-to-list ratios have consistently landed at or above 100%, frequently in the 101–107% range, meaning the typical well-priced home is still selling at or above its asking price.
- Los Gatos specifically continues to see homes move quickly when priced accurately, with multiple-offer situations still common
The driver here isn't mysterious: proximity to major employers. Netflix, Apple, NVIDIA, Google, ServiceNow, and Applied Materials all sit within a 15–25 minute commute of Los Gatos, and that concentration of high-income, relatively insulated tech employment keeps local buyer demand far more resilient than the national picture suggests. National affordability math — rents beating buying in all 50 major metros, years-to-down-payment stretching into the better part of a decade — is real, but it applies far less cleanly to a buyer pool with South Bay tech comp.
What This Means for You
If you're selling: Don't let the national headlines talk you into underpricing. Local inventory constraints mean well-prepared, accurately priced homes are still commanding strong activity and, in many cases, offers above list.
If you're buying: Don't wait on the national "buyer's market" narrative to give you leverage here — it largely won't. Rate relief and any meaningful softening will likely show up nationally well before it reaches Santa Clara County in a material way, given how tight local supply remains.
The national data is a useful signal for the broader economy, but real estate is hyper-local by nature, and the South Bay is a clear example of why. If you're weighing a move — on either side of the table — we're happy to walk through what the numbers look like for your specific neighborhood and price point.
Wondering what your home is worth in today's market? Get a free valuation. If you're thinking about selling or buying, learn how we help sellers or buyers make confident moves. And if you have questions along the way, we're always happy to help — just contact us anytime.
